Slaw Dog
Ahh… Anaheim 1. Riders are fresh, teams are stressed, and fans are well indulged. The opening round of the 2025 Monster Energy Supercross season takes place this Saturday at its annual home, Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.
Lots to talk about this new season. Will anyone stop Jett? Is Sexton better adjusted to the KTM? Can Tomac make a run toward the title in his last season? And on and on and on.
While each of these deserve their own talking points and analysis, I’m here for none of that. I’m here to infuse some flaming hot (okay, mild if I’m being honest) takes for Anaheim 1. No, these are not season long predictions, they are specially for the opener. I will only be held accountable for these until Wednesday, Jan 15. Those are the rules. I don’t make them, I just abided by them.
Let’s kick it off with something that happens, well, almost every year….
#5: A Top Rider Will NOT Make The 450 Main Event
Let’s clear this up right away: What is a top rider? Anyone who finished top 20 in Supercross points in 2024, any former champion (450 or 250), any rider with multiple career top 10s and any former MXGP Champions. Those are the qualifications.
As we saw with Hunter Lawrence last year, A1 is a freaking pressure cooker. It is our Super Bowl. Our Daytona 500. Our most looked at, most talked about, and most over hyped event of the year. Fail here and the message boards will have you off your factory team before San Diego hits. It’s just the way it is. While I won’t name names here, I think we see at least one (maybe two) “top” riders not lining up for the main come Saturday night.
#4 Jett Loses the Opener
Everyone, from Vegas to podcasts and all that’s in-between, has Jett winning the opener. And, honestly, for good reason. He ranked first in every statistical category in 2024, won eight times and became just the third rookie in history (some guys named Jeremy McGrath and Ryan Dungey being the other two) to win a 450SX title in their rookie year. He was, and is, the best rider in the world. Hands down. If you don’t agree, seek counseling.
And yet… I’m going against the grain here. While I still have Jett as my title pick for this year, I think the opener is so strange, so weird, so different, someone else sneaks through to grab the win.
That person is… HUNTER LAWRENCE! Yep, Hunta is not only my pick to have a breakout year in 2025, but he’s also my pick for the opener. Some may call me crazy, but I can assure you I’m only a little crazy. Not full-on.
Hunter dropped the hammer toward the end of last year, snagging two podiums and an average finish of 5.2. With a second full off-season under his belt, he’s primed for a breakthrough victory. And it will be at Anaheim 1.
#3 Cooper Webb Misses the Podium
No, I’m not “hating” on Cooper Webb or capping or whatever you young ins call it. I very much still have Webb as a title favorite behind Jett and Sexton. But, looking at history, he hasn’t been great at the opener. Consider this: In eight previous opening rounds, he’s never won and finished sixth a year ago. While you could argue it was a new bike, and I give that credence, Webb seems to catch his stride a few rounds into the year. And while I don’t foresee a finish outside the top 5, I also don’t see a podium either.
#2 Jorge Prado Finishes Outside Top 10
I may come to regret this one. Prado is a world class rider and one that I think will have future success in Supercross, maybe even titles. I just don’t think Anaheim 1 is that time. A year ago, Prado ventured to the U.S. for a tryout of sorts and competed in the opening four rounds. In those four races, he only finished inside the top 10 once—in the mud at round 2 in San Francisco where he took home seventh. His other finishes? 13th at Anaheim 1, 11th at San Diego and 12th at Anaheim 2.
Couple the fact that Supercross is a tough learning experience, he’s also moved straight to the 450 Class, is on an all-new bike and team and to me, still has things to figure out. Give him a couple rounds and we probably see him on the podium (he’s that talented), but I just don’t see it happening this Saturday.
#1: Haiden Deegan Wins Anaheim 1
Just when you thought Slaw was going to drop a heater for the #1 spot, I don’t. Always keeping Slaw Nation on its toes. Look, I wanted to pick someone else to “spice” things up. I really did. Alas, I took the straight and narrow approach and picked the clear favorite. I will do better in the future. Swear.
Main image: Kawasaki
I’m with you on most of these. However, I’m calling Hunta for the championship and I think he gets second on Saturday. I think Webb takes Anaheim. Jett battles to the bitter end with Tomac to take third.