Projected 2023 AMA Supercross and Motocross Numbers Following Pro Motocross

We are talking about 2023 and projected numbers.

I have been yelling at the clouds for years we need more stats in our sport. I’m not good enough at math to do it, but one man trying to change the game is a Mr. Clinton Fowler. Dude is like a walking encyclopedia of moto stats. You need to follow him on Twitter (@3lapsdown). He’s great.

Okay, with all that said, Clinton has gifted us with his projected numbers for the 2023 AMA Supercross and Motocross season. If they are wrong, please blame him. Not Slaw.

I’ll let Clinton take it from here.

Here are the PROJECTED 2023 national numbers. This is not an official list but should be very, very close (I’ve read pages 18-19 of the 2022 Supercross Rulebook and confirmed some of the details with Mike Pelletier, Director of AMA Pro Racing). Keep in mind it’s not unheard of for additional rule changes to be implemented so I recommend waiting for the official release to make any big investments.

If you see a mistake (they happen), please don’t hesitate to reach out to me @3lapsdown on Twitter or Instagram.

The Key Assumptions

If any of these assumptions change, there’s a cascading effect to most everyone’s numbers.

• Current career number holders keep their current career numbers
• No one wants #13 and steers clear
• There are 5 riders expected to request special consideration to keep their career numbers. Zacho has confirmed he’s good to keep #16. We expect Broc Tickle #20, Chad Reed #22, Colt Nichols #45, and Justin Hill #46 to ask and get approval to keep their numbers. If they don’t request or aren’t approved, that will shift everyone’s numbers.
• FIM license riders will get numbers – this rule was changed a few seasons ago. There’s 5-7 riders that were potentially racing with an FIM license so if they change this rule again it could have a big impact.
• For riders with 10 races in the SX West, their worst finish is dropped (this impacted Christian Craig, Hunter Lawrence, Michael Mosiman, Nate Thrasher, Vince Friese, and Chris Blose). This is because the SX East riders only had 9 races and fair is fair folks.
• Ties are decided by (1) raced both SX and MX and then (2) best main or moto finish.

Defending Champions

• Eli Tomac. Eli is expected to defend his 450 supercross title in 2023 and will ride with #1.
• Jett Lawrence. Jett is expected back for a 250 regional supercross in 2023. If he rides the East he’ll have the #1.
• It’s expected that all other defending champions will be riding different classes or are expected to retire (a la Eli Tomac is not expected to race 450MX in 2023)

New Career Number

• Christian Craig is the only rider to earn a new career number this year (Congrats Christian!). It’s expected he’ll take #28 and that’s where we’ve slotted him. If not, maybe #44 considering it was his amateur number.

Big Movers

• Justin Starling improves from #95 to #60. This will be his 10th of 12 years with a national number and the second time with #60 (2019).
• Derek Kelley improves +33 slots to #41 from #74. This will make Troy very, very happy. Impressive break-out year for Derek and he’s rewarded with his 3rd and best number.
• Jordon Smith moves from #90 to #58. This will be the 8th double digit number in his 9th year of racing. Did you know Jordon’s a pro at cornhole!?

Same Old Same

• If all holds as-is, Cameron McAdoo will be the only rider (without a career number) that keeps the same number next year. 

New Double Digit Numbers

I anticipate 21 riders will move from triple to double digit numbers in 2022.

• #50 Marshall Weltin. He’s ridden with #285 the last 5 years, but he had previously raced with #89 in 2016 – a number he earned after just 3 races in his 2015 debut season.
• #53 Derek Drake. This is Derek’s third national number. He had #57 in 2020 and #33 in 2021. A good return to form for Derek after his heart condition and surgery in 2021.
• #54 Nick Romano. The New York native will enter his first full season with a double digit number. I remember another New Yorker Phil Nicoletti running this back in 2018.
• #61 Ryan Breece. The PNW native moves from his #200 to #61. This is his 4th and lowest national number (previous lowest was #71) in his 9 year career.
• #64 Carson Brown. Another PNW native, Carson gets his 3rd and lowest national number – he was #65 in 2021.
• #65 Antonio Cairoli. Based on the rules, he’s slotted here… but can you imagine him racing with anything but #222?! My gut says that everyone below here is going to end up moving up one digit but we’ll have to wait and see.
• #66 Henry Miller. 2023 will be the 6th time Henry’s had a national number albeit a few shy of his career best #48 which he had in both 2018 and 2020. He earned this with points in 8 supercross mains (both 250SX East and 450SX) and 10 450 Pro Motocross motos. 
• #67 Cullin Park. Cullin made 7 of 9 supercross main events including 2 Top 10 finishes. He also earned points in 4 450 Pro Motocross motos. Not bad for a rookie season!
• #69 Phil Nicoletti. What are the chances this makes him smile more!? The likable New Yorker returns to the double digits even in an injury shortened season. 5 Top 10 finishes in the 250 East Supercross series were enough to secure this coveted number..
• #72 Matthew Leblanc. Matthew earns his first national number in his rookie season. Most recent success for #72 was Coty Schock’s break-out 2021 season.
• #75 Ryder Difrancesco. Another great amateur stand-out by the name of Josh Hill had this as a career number. 
• #79 Dylan Walsh. Early success in both supercross and motocross earned Dylan his first national number. While a bit older, this was his rookie season in the US – a Kiwi by way of Britain.
• #82 Josh Gilbert. 6 Top 15 moto finishes in the 450 Pro Motocross series secured this international rider a two digit number.
• #83 Cole Thompson. His 250 west supercross campaign was cut short by injury, but his 50 points was enough to earn him his 4th career national number.
• #86 Josiah Natzke. Another international rider, Josiah had 8 Top 20 motos in 250 Pro Motocross.
• #88 Guillem Farres. See a theme… another international rider. He used the last 3 rounds of 250 Pro Motocross to secure a double digit number for 2023.
• #89 Kaeden Amerine. Kaeden had a season best 11th at Anaheim 3, the best of his 5 Top 20 finishes in his rookie supercross campaign. Unfortunately a wrist injury cut his supercross season short. Impressive start for a promising young talent.
• #90 Tristan Lane. This will be Tristan’s first national number, having raced with #711 for the first 6 years of his professional career.
• #95 Lance Kobusch.  A combination of 3 supercross main events and 8 Pro Motocross motos in the points earns Lance his first national number.
• #97 Devin Harriman. That time in the offseason training in Oklahoma has paid off for Devin. Another PNW native with a double digit – the first of his career.
• #98 Geran Stapleton. I got a note from Geran just before the last race asking whether he needed to race Pala II or was he safe for a double digit. Fingers crossed for Geran but it looks like his 4 Top 20 250 supercross finishes were enough.
• #99 Hardy Munoz. While it’s not official, it looks like he’s earned his second career double digit number (his first was #93 in 2021).

Just Missed…

Bryson Gardner (29 pts) and Brandon Ray (28 pts) missed a double digit number by a mere 1 and 2 points. 

Back to Triple Digits…

11 riders will move back to a 3 digit number in 2023. Most notably are Coty Shock and Kyle Peters along with the ever popular Alex Ray. Additionally, Tyler Stepek, Ramy Alves, Hunter Schlosser, Josh Osby, Scott Meshey, Lane Shaw, Luke Neese, Devin Simonson, and Brandon Scharer.

Rider	2022 #	Projected 2023 #		Final
				Rank	Points
Cooper Webb	2	2	*	23		278
Eli Tomac	3	3	*	1		905
Open		4
Ryan Dungey	5	5	*	16		359
Jeremy Martin	6	6	*	79		42
Aaron Plessinger	7	7	*	11		419
Open		8
Adam Cianciarulo	9	9	*	96		23
Justin Brayton	10	10	*	41		176
Kyle Chisholm	11	11	*	38		193
Shane McElrath	12	12	*	19		314
Open		13
Dylan Ferrandis	14	14	*	39		184
Dean Wilson	15	15	*	32		215
Zach Osborne	16	16	*
Joey Savatgy	17	17	*	26		249
Jett Lawrence	18	18	*	4		717
Justin Bogle	19	19	*	48		116
Broc Tickle	20	20	*
Jason Anderson	21	21	*	3		790
Chad Reed	22	22	*
Chase Sexton	23	23	*	2		831
RJ Hampshire	24	24	*	10		504
Marvin Musquin	25	25	*	18		333
Alex Martin	26	26	*	25		258
Malcolm Stewart	27	27	*	15		375
Christian Craig	28	28	**	8		588
Nate Thrasher	49	29		13		400
Jo Shimoda	30	30	*	6		642
Michael Mosiman	29	31		14		391
Justin Cooper	32	32	*	12		415
Pierce Brown	44	33		17		347
Max Vohland	36	34		20		304
Seth Hammaker	47	35		21		300
Garrett Marchbanks	35	36		22		297
Brandon Hartranft	41	37		24		267
Jalek Swoll	31	38		27		248
Vince Friese	62	39		28		242
Stilez Robertson	50	40		29		236
Derek Kelley	74	41		30		235
Joshua Varize	38	42		31		219
Levi Kitchen	59	43		33		208
Benny Bloss	73	44		35		204
Colt Nichols	45	45	*
Justin Hill	46	46	*
Fredrik Noren	61	47		34		204
Cameron McAdoo	48	48		37		197
Mitchell Oldenburg	54	49		36		197
Marshal Weltin	285	50		40		179
Justin Barcia	51	51	*	7		605
Carson Mumford	43	52		42		170
Derek Drake	331	53		43		160
Nick Romano	411	54		44		133
Austin Forkner	33	55		45		128
Enzo Lopes	80	56		46		126
Chris Blose	66	57		47		119
Jordon Smith	90	58		49		116
Robbie Wageman	69	59		50		109
Justin Starling	95	60		52		103
Ryan Breece	200	61		51		103
Jace Owen	81	62		53		101
Max Anstie	34	63		54		100
Carson Brown	910	64		55		99
Antonio Cairoli	222	65		56		97
Henry Miller	129	66		57		88
Cullin Park	140	67		58		79
Cade Clason	78	68		59		79
Phil Nicoletti	715	69		60		76
Justin Rodbell	55	70		61		75
Preston Kilroy	68	71		62		74
Matthew Leblanc	329	72		63		71
John Short	72	73		65		68
Logan Karnow	67	74		64		68
Ryder Difrancesco	523	75		66		67
Dominique Thury	98	76		67		65
Ryan Surratt	58	77		68		64
Grant Harlan	65	78		69		55
Dylan Walsh	101	79		72		53
Kevin Moranz	57	80		71		53
Ty Masterpool	42	81		70		53
Josh Gilbert	323	82		73		51
Cole Thompson	161	83		75		50
Mitchell Harrison	64	84		74		50
Dilan Schwartz	40	85		76		48
Josiah Natzke	533	86		77		45
Chris Canning	82	87		78		43
Guillem Farres	109	88		80		40
Kaeden Amerine	432	89		81		38
Tristan Lane	711	90		82		36
Jeremy Hand	63	91		83		35
Jarrett Frye	39	92		84		35
Jerry Robin	97	93		85		33
Ken Roczen	94	94	*	9		527
Lance Kobusch	194	95		86		33
Hunter Lawrence	96	96	*	5		683
Devin Harriman	216	97		87		32
Geran Stapleton	914	98		89		30
Hardy Munoz	243	99		88		30
Bryson Gardner	837			90		29
Brandon Ray	388			91		28
Christopher Prebula	995			92		25
Kyle Peters	52			93		25
Joshua Cartwright	519			94		24
Tyler Stepek	93			95		23
Jorgen Talviku	226			97		19
Jack Chambers	192			98		18
Austin Politelli	981			99		18
Max Miller	604			100		18
Ramyller Alves	70			101		17
Michael Hicks	460			102		17
Talon Hawkins	339			103		17
Haiden Deegan	438			104		16
Hunter Schlosser	79			105		16
Joan Cros	848			106		15
Dylan Woodcock	260			107		15
Alex Ray	87			108		14
McClellan Hile	503			109		13
Josh Hill	751			110		13
Hunter Yoder	508			111		12
Chance Hymas				151		11
Zack Williams	874			112		10
Tre Fierro	158			113		10
Luca Marsalisi	174			114		9
Felix Lopez	577			115		8
Coty Schock	37			116		8
Adam Enticknap	722			117		8
Scott Meshey	84			118		8
Vincent Luhovey	437			119		8
Wyatt Lyonsmith	181			120		7
Maxwell Sanford	162			121		7
James Harrington	778			122		6
Josh Osby	56			123		6
Brock Papi	247			124		6
Chandler Baker	350			125		6
Slade Smith	337			126		6
Brayden Lessler	901			127		5
Marcus Phelps	435			128		4
Romain Pape	444			129		4
Alexander Nagy	509			130		3
Austin Black	377			131		3
Jeffrey Walker	841			132		3
Jesse Flock	167			133		3
Kyle Murdoch	560			134		3
Lane Shaw	89			135		3
Luke Neese	75			136		3
Devin Simonson	76			137		2
Gared Steinke	726			138		2
Izaih Clark	682			139		2
Jeremy Smith	309			140		2
Justin Cokinos	401			141		2
Jy Roberts	201			142		2
Kyle Greeson	204			143		2
Richard Taylor	141			144		2
AJ Catanzaro	330			145		1
Brandon Scharer	91			146		1
Cole Harkins	220			147		1
Justin Jones	429			148		1
Keylan Meston	170			149		1
Tyson Johnson	159			150		1