Will Jett Lawrence Capture the Supercross Title in 2025?

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Finally, Monster Energy Supercross is back in our lives. This Saturday, the 2025 season kicks off in Anaheim, and there is plenty to talk about.

Will Jett Lawrence walk to another title? Is this Chase Sexton’s last season with Red Bull KTM? Can Haiden Deegan lock down his first 250SX championship? In this edition of “Most Likely” we dig into those questions and more.

Who is most likely to win Anaheim 1?

Ahh… the start of a new year and every rider believes they can win the title. Anaheim 1 is truly unique in that everyone (usually) enters with a fresh outlook on the season and believe “THEY” have what it takes to capture the championship. By the time we reach Indy, everyone kind of knows where they stand, are banged up, and results tend to vary much less. NOT at A1, baby, This race always brings something strange and I think the pattern continues.

Yes, Jett Lawrence will be the favorite this weekend. How could he not be? Be when others go right, Slaw turns left and I WILL NOT be picking Jett to win this Saturday. Nope, going out on a limb here and picking….

Hunter Lawrence! Yep, a Lawrence will win but it will be the elder Hunter. Go back and watch the SuperMotocross Playoffs from last year. Hunter was a completely different rider and I think he enters 2025 with a newfound confidence that will translate into a win.

Who is most likely to win the 450 title?

Slaw will be turning right with everyone on this and will be picking Jett. While I wanted to throw some spice into these “predictions” I have a reputation to uphold as the best picker in the game and I have to go with Jett. Look, he made it look way too easy during stretches last year and he WAS A ROOKIE!!!! Add another year of experience and it will be hard to slow him down in 2025.

Who is most likely to win the 250SX West Region?

Again, I will follow the crowd on this one. Only Troy Dog would pick against Haiden Deegan for the 250SX West Region. He will have a stiff test though, as Austin Forkner, Jo Shimoda and WE THINK Levi Kitchen will all race the West Region. This class is stupid stacked, but I have to stick with Deegan. Unlike last year, we think he’s 100% entering the new year and the only thing that cost him a year ago was a slow start due to injury. It won’t be a cake walk, but Deegan brings it home in 2025.

Who is most likely to have a breakout year in the 450 Class?

Hunter “Fing” Lawrence. While Jett had immediate success as a rookie, it took Hunter a bit longer. But, to me anyway, that was expected. Hunter develops differently. It takes him a bit longer to adjust, but once he does, watch out. And his 2024 rookie season went as expected… to me. Here’s why.

Let’s break his season into three parts: The first 5 races, the next 5 and the last 5. Seeing as this is a 17-round series, and Hunter missed a round due to injury, I broke it into 15 races. Note: He did finish 15th at the season finale at SLC.

First 5

Anaheim 1: DNQ

San Fransisco: 10th

San Diego: 7th

Anaheim 2: 11th

Detroit: 8th

Avg Finish: 11.8

Note: I gave him a 23rd place finish for Anaheim 1.

Second 5

Glendale: 5th

Arlington: 5th

Daytona: 21

Indianpolis: 11th

Seattle: 7th

Avg Finish: 9.8

Third 5

St. Louis: 3rd

Foxborough: 7th

Nashville: 7th

Philadelphia: 7th

Denver: 2nd

Avg Finish: 5.2

Massive improvement from Hunter toward the end of 2024 and are the results I expect in 2025.

Who is most likely to have a breakout year in the 250 Class?

I’m all aboard the Ryder D train in 2025. His rookie season was okay, but he’s a great starter and with another season adjusting to the GasGas, he’ll have a breakout year in 2025. At least one podium, a top five finish in the series, and multiple holeshots. Stamp it.

Who are the riders most likely to win a race in the 450 Class?

Every year, we look at the entry lists and scream “most stacked class ever!!!!” And, while I agree, this class is “staked” most seasons only produce 4-5 winners… if we are lucky. With that said, here is who I have winning at least one race in 2025:

Jett Lawrence

Hunter Lawrence

Eli Tomac

Chase Sexton

Cooper Webb

That’s it. That’s the list.

Who is most likely to be on a new team in 2026?

As I wrote about previously, I think Chase Sexton departs Red Bull KTM once his contract is up at the end of the year. KTM is undergoing significant changes and I think Sexton uses that as a way to venture to a new team starting in 2026.

Main image: Honda