Vurbwes Chilidog
Can Austin Forkner win the opening round of the 250SX East Region Championship, which would also deliver Triumph its first two wins back-to-back? I’ve been debating this question all week, and I decided to ask the all-knowing ChatGPT so I could establish a baseline of probability.
ChatGPT claims the probability lies within the 15-25% margin. My intuition screams it’s definitely higher than that. How much higher? Shit, I don’t know. Let’s roll it at 44.8%. Despite having had literal BRAIN SURGERY, Austin Forkner still seems to be a freak on a motorcycle.
He always has been, and he always will be. While that’s an amazing trait, it’s also been quite a hindrance to his career. We’ve seen insane speed, insane wins, and unfortunately the complete reverse of that as well, with way too many season-ending injuries. He’s a warrior who keeps coming back to battle, and now he’s changed OEM for the first time since… hell, his 50cc days?! Jordon Smith proved the Triumph 250 is capable of winning, as he did it just last weekend in Glendale. So now Austin Forkner has the opportunity to deliver the brand another victory just one week later.
Is it possible?!
Since his Monster Energy AMA Supercross debut in 2017, Austin has only won the opener TWICE. That’s two times out of eight tries, so that in itself doesn’t really back up my 44.8% probability. Vegas is probably trying to take my money right this second.
However, Austin is currently the second most-winning 250SX rider of all-time with 13 wins. The only guy beating him in that department is James Stewart. So that stat is on my side. He did win the opener in 2024. So that’s a plus for me and my in-depth statistical analysis. The only time he’s raced in Tampa in his entire career, HE WON! Another box for me.
It’s also been proven that brain surgery helps your supercross timing, arm pump ailments, and dirtbiking consistency. This might as well be in the bag. I would type out my crazy long mathematical formula that landed me at 44.8%, but that brainiac stuff is boring. Let’s just take my word for it: Austin Forkner mathematically has an undisputed 44.8% chance of winning this weekend, which leaves about 8 other factory racers to divvy up the remaining 60%.
Austin: 44.8%. Everyone else: 6.9%.
Main image: Triumph
