SuperMotocross Playoff Scenarios, How Will This Play Out?

It’s here, the final race of the 2024 SuperMotocross season! Can you believe that? All of the work that started at the end of 2023 is now going to pay off in a huge payday for the top riders in the sport.

The 31st and final round is of course taking place at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend and it’s going to be a night race. The night show will start at 7PM local time, so for all of you East Coast people, well that’s a 10PM start time.

We’re going to get a winner take all showdown in Vegas for the 450 class and I don’t know about you, but that is the best case scenario heading into a season finale that has been nine months in the making. I’ve went ahead and have gone through the many scenarios of who could win each class. We’ve got triple points on the line and that is seriously the only reason that Jett Lawrence can still win this thing!

The tie-breaker will be the amount of overall wins that each rider has.

450 Class Points

Hunter Lawrence 90 Points
Chase Sexton 89 Points
Jett Lawrence 81 Points

Only three riders have a chance to win the 2024 SMX Playoffs. Eli Tomac is fourth in the standings with 69 points and would need both the Lawrence brothers and Chase Sexton to all have DNFs in order to win. We’ve seen a lot of crazy things happen in this sport, but this would be outlandish.

– If Hunter Lawrence wins, then he wins the playoffs. It’s as simple as that.

– If Chase Sexton wins and Jett gets second, and Hunter gets third, then Sexton will win the playoffs, Hunter will get second, and Jett will get third.

– Here is where it gets interesting. Jettson is 9 points behind his brother Hunter. Should Jett win and Hunter get second then they will tie on points. Jett would get the tie-breaker for winning two of the rounds opposed to his brother just winning one.

– If Jett were to get second, then Hunter will need to finish third in order to win and hope that Sexton doesn’t win.

– If Jett gets third then Hunter and Chase will have to finish sixth or worse.

250 Class Points

Haiden Deegan 100 Points
Tom Vialle 81 Points
Levi Kitchen 78 Points
Jo Shimoda 76 Points
Julien Beaumer 69 Points

– Haiden Deegan has been on fire, but he still needs to finish third or better to win if Vialle wins. They will tie on points in this scenario and Deegan will get the tie breaker.

– If Tom Vialle wins and Deegan gets fourth then Vialle will win the playoffs.

– If Levi Kitchen wins and Deegan gets fifth or worse, it won’t matter what place Vialle gets. Kitchen will win the playoffs in this scenario.

– It’s going to take some luck for Jo Shimoda or Julien Beaumer to win. Deegan would have to completely fall apart and they would have to each get the overall win for max points. Deegan would have to finish sixth or worse, Vialle would have to finish second or worse, and Kitchen would have to finish second or worse to have Shimoda win. If Deegan finished fifth then he and Shimoda would tie and Deegan would win that tie-breaker.

– For Beaumer to win, Deegan would have to finish eighth or worse, Shimoda second or worse, Vialle third or worse, and Kitchen second or worse. In this scenario Kitchen and Beaumer would tie on points with the tie-breaker going to Beaumer for winning an overall.

Last year we did see some drama in the final round, but ultimately it was Jett Lawrence and Haiden Deegan who took home the SMX World Championships. Can they each back those up again in 2024?

Main Image Courtesy of SuperMotocross