Slaw Dog
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We are down six rounds! The Monster Energy Supercross season continues in Arlington on Saturday and in this edition of Most Likely, we examine some key talking points. Like, will Eli Tomac return in 2026? Who is the favorite in the 250SX West Region? Could we see a format change? Is it down to two in the 450SX Class and more.
Read on…
Eli Tomac said he wants to return for the end of Supercross. BUT is he most likely to return to a full SX schedule in 2026?
Slaw: I really hope so. Tomac didn’t look like a rider on his last ride before his injury. He was spicy, he was fast and was a title contender. IF, and I think this is a big IF, Tomac does return in 2026, it would be a Supercross-only deal. I don’t think we see another full SuperMotocross campaign from Tomac ever again and that makes me sad. Who knows, maybe Tomac reads this, returns from Twitter retirement to roast me and says he’s going to race a full schedule in 2026. You don’t want Eli in your mentions, ask Zach.
WesDog: Eli Tomac will race until he’s 45 if that means getting one last FULL Monster Energy AMA Supercross season under his belt. Chuck Tomac isn’t going out on anyone’s terms except his own.
A few weeks ago, a very smart person wrote about a new format for the 17-round season. Are we most likely to get a change to the format change anytime soon?
Slaw: No idea who this person is, but brilliant idea here. If you would have asked me a few years ago, I would have said no. While I think FELD would be more than happy to make these changes, I’m not sure the teams would go for it. It’s a lot of wear and tear on the riders and the bikes. Could this work? 100%. Again, brilliant idea. Is it most likely to happen? No, no it isn’t.
WesDog: I think implementing change is tough, especially in a big organization. Following a proven program is a guaranteed bet, so unless there are issues that necessitate change, it’ll be tough to convince everyone from the brass to the OEMs and racers themselves.
As a fan, I personally love change and would be enthralled to see this crazy idea from Slaw implemented. With one caveat, it’s not just Supercross that gets an injection of fun. Make 4+ rounds of Pro Motocross adapt a new format as well. Imagine Superpoles, SX style qualifying, and one moto format outdoors, or even Triple Crowns? That would most definitely add some excitement!
The West Region returns and the top three—Julien Beaumer, Jordon Smith, Haiden Deegan—are separated by 3 points. Who is most likely to win the title?
Slaw: This is going to be a barn burner and what a collection of riders to battle this out. You have the veteran Jordon Smith, the superstar Haiden Deegan and the young talent in Julien Beaumer. My two cents if you want it: I don’t think Smith is consistent enough and Beaumer isn’t proven enough (this is his first real championship fight) and that Deegan rips off a couple wins, takes control of the championship and goes on to win his first career 250SX championship.
VurbwesDog: Damn this is tough. The fan in me really wants to see Jordon Smith get a championship; Deegan and Beaumer have many, many years left to accomplish this in their careers. But, in the same breath, I have to admit that Jordon has a tendency to toss away some races here and there. COUGH *A2* COUGH. w
While JuJu seems so on top of his game and has the confidence to match, it’s hard not to put the money on Deegan. He’ll end up going full J-Law/Dungey 2008 and playing head games to the fullest extent, even if Smitty is in the mix, too. Deegan isn’t afraid to do some bar banging, either, so I just think if he gets painted into a corner, he’s going to do what he has to do. He wants to get a Supercross Championship pretty badly at this point.
Who is most likely to be the target of anger on the internet following Arlington?
Slaw: The AMA? Privateers? FELD? Who’s next, that I have no idea, I just hope it isn’t me (It could be if Eli reads this). It will probably be Troy as he’ll have some terrible take this weekend and be dumb enough to put it on Twitter.
Wes: It’s somehow going to be Deegan, but, as usual, he’ll have a completely polarized internet. 50% for him, 50% against. What’s he going to do? A lot of bar banging. The purists of the sport will be saying, “Hell yea, that’s what RJ and Bailey would’ve done!” while 48,000 Instagram trolls will be crying because he rode some people high in a berm.
Is this most likely a two-rider title chase (no pun intended) in the 450 Class?
Slaw: Hells no. Have you seen the way Ken Roczen is riding? He is on a different level this year and while he has a points hole to climb out of, this championship has been anything but predictable and he’s still very much in this.
Wes: Nah. Kenny mentioning his “stigma” on the podium last week says it all. He’s tired of people just assuming he’s going to roll over to Webb. The fire has been lit. The fire will burn. We’re going to have a repeat of the final round in 2007.
Images: @octopi.media
